Economic and socioeconomic indicators (WP 4)

The overall aim of WP4 is to develop resource indicators that combine economic, social and biological indicators. The traditionally used indicator of economic activity is the operating economy of the fishing fleet (landing value, profit, employment). However, such indicators neither relate directly to the benefit for the whole society nor are they necessarily sustainable. Therefore, relevant indicators for the economic return in fishing must be based on a sustainable socio-economic measure.  

Sustainable socio-economic return does, however, only state the present return to society of the existence of a fishery, not the economic potential of the fishery. To this aim, the Maximum Economic Yield must be determined and the socio-economic return associated with a move to the MSY and simultaneous minimisation of fishing fleet determined. To allow fisheries to conform to dynamic MSY levels, adaptive management must be planned within agreed governance structures and the rules for governance must be robust and simple to interpret. In terms of economic indicators it is furthermore important to take a stochastic approach, since variance and uncertainty are critical issues in relation to the economic performance of natural resource systems.   

In task 4.1, the annual user value of the selected fisheries will be identified. The current resource rent and the maximum resource rent is calculated as the two main socio-economic indicators for the selected case studies. Furthermore, landing value, profit and employment will be identified for the selected fisheries currently and for the fisheries at the level compatible with maximum economic yield. The analysis will be based on the model developed in WP1 to WP3, with an added socio-economic module. The calculations are based on account statistics for fishery and statistics of alternative use of capital and labour.  

In task 4.2 the project will identify the potential context of economic indicators in a responsive management system. This will determine the potential responsive management systems in fisheries (single and multi-species) and the role of economic indicators will be shown through model system diagrams. Stakeholder consultation on potential adaptive management needs and options would then be undertaken to validate the inclusion of indicators and their likely roles. The analysis will be based on the model developed in WP1 to WP3, with an added socio-economic module. The calculations are based on account statistics for the fishery and statistics of alternative use of capital and labour.  

In task 4.3, the project will identify a range of possible economic indicators relevant to responsive management systems at various scales. A relational model will be developed to link economic indicators to changes in management, providing an effective framework for the rules of responsive management. Estimated costs and other issues (practicality, reliability, etc) relevant to the collection and use of appropriate economic indicators will be assessed from available economic statistics.   

In task 4.4, the project will demonstrate the effects of using such economic indicators within practical responsive management systems. Simulation models will be developed for case example fisheries from other WPs, in which economic indicators can be sampled and used in rules for responsive management to demonstrate the likely impact on outcomes. Stochastic simulations would give a range of outcomes, demonstrating the degree of uncertainty associated with rules based on these indicators. The impacts would be demonstrated on different different temporal, spatial and sectoral scales. Performance of rules and indicators would be evaluated in terms of modelled output and through stakeholder consultation on performance criteria.

 

 

http://www.defineit.dk/project_structure/workpackage4
16 DECEMBER 2018